Why uncertainty can be the starting point for something better.

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Whenever I tell people that I plan to move back to India, the response from them follows a similar pattern.

At first they are surprised about me leaving Europe. “Why do you want to leave the UK?”, “Why move away from a well-paid job?”, “Don’t you like it out there?”.

Then they wonder why I want to move to India rather than moving to another foreign country. “Why not the US, Dubai, Singapore?”, “Will you like working in India?”, “Will you even get a job that pays well in India?”.

This is when they voice their concern and often ask me to reconsider my choice since there is enough time to do so.

Eventually, when they realize my mind is made up, the question moves to what I plan to do in India. “Do you plan to apply for a job or start your business?”, “What business are you planning to start?”, “Is it the same industry I have worked so far or not?”, “Will you be able to make the same money as you made in the UK?”

And this is unacceptable to everyone who talks to me to the point of saying that I’m just kidding when I say that I plan to move back.

My argument is simple. Why should I know how I will make money? how much money I will make on my first month? on the first month that I move back. I have created a runway that would support my lifestyle for the next few years. Why can’t I try new things, work on things I like at that very moment without any pressure of potentially not making any income for a few months or even losing money?

This argument made me look like someone who lacks clarity or worse, a nutjob. While I had no intention to prove them, I would be lying if I said it didn’t cast some doubt on myself.

Until, I recently came across this Brilliant episode of The Last Meal with Tom Nash. Tom is a quadruple amputee after surviving a life-threatening infection and he invites people with a simple call.

He cooks it for them and through this, digs deep into life’s biggest questions with his guests.

His guest on this episode is Behavioral Economist Dan Ariely, who himself has gone through a transformative journey after severe burn injury kept him hospitalized for almost 3 years. When he was asked what according to him is a life well-lived, Dan says,

He explains by narrating an experiment from another famous economist, Paul Samuelson.

Samuelson asked his colleague if he would accept the following bet:

“I have a coin, I flip it. If it is heads I give you $200. If it is tails, you give me $100”. The colleague declines it as he says that though the expected value is positive considering both have a 50% chance, winning $200 will only make him slightly happy but losing $100 will make him very sad.

Samuelson now offers his colleague would you accept this bet if it is done a thousand times. The colleague gives a resounding “Yes”.

Dan now rephrases this to our decisions in life. Every day life gives us a gamble with differing bets. On each day, if we decide just based on the day’s odds and taking into account that losing will hurt more, we always turn down saying “Not worth it”.

“But if we think of a life worth lived, I think its a life where we try many more things. Because the expected value of gambling with life is positive” quips Dan.

People are luckier Yes. But luck is really what we make out of it.

And I don’t think I can find anything better to comfort me that I am on the right path.

Maybe my “I don’t know” isn’t a lack of clarity—it’s simply me accepting the gamble. Because if the expected value of trying new things is positive, then moving back to India without a perfect plan isn’t reckless. It’s just my way of placing more bets on the life I actually want to live.

PS: If you relate with this newsletter, I strongly recommend watching the full conversation in the link above.

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One Bias that impacts our decisions:

Myopic Loss Aversion:

Myopic loss aversion is our tendency to focus on short-term losses more than long-term gains, often leading us to reject good opportunities because the immediate risk feels too uncomfortable. Acknowledging this bias is what makes long term investors not care about short term blips as over the course of 1000 days, the bets pay out and eventually you will be net positive.

It’s the same mindset that makes people question a big move without a detailed plan—valuing the “certainty” of a steady job today over the potential upside of exploring new paths tomorrow. In my case, not knowing exactly what I’ll do in India might feel like a loss to some, but zooming out, I see it as placing many small bets on a life that’s richer in the long run.

One Question to reflect for the week:

This helps you identify moments where fear of uncertainty is holding them back from decisions that could lead to long-term growth and fulfillment.

I hope you enjoyed this week's version. See you next week.

Best wishes,

Nimalan.
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